Tight supply at the mine end pushes tungsten price to record high, up nearly 17% year-to-date [SMM Commentary]

SMM News on May 29:

Factors such as a decline in the total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore mining this year, a drop in mine grades, and extremely low inventory of high-grade tungsten ore have supported tungsten prices. Some suppliers are optimistic about the boost to future tungsten demand from global military upgrades and emerging industries. Suppliers are reluctant to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced tungsten in the market. Tungsten prices have risen by % since the beginning of the year, surpassing their previous all-time high. According to SMM, the market transaction price for high-grade tungsten ore exceeded 170,000 yuan/metric ton (mt) on the afternoon of May 29.

The total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore mining this year decreased by 4,000 mt compared to the first batch in 2024.

The Ministry of Natural Resources had previously issued the "Notice on Issuing the First Batch of Total Control Indicators for Tungsten Ore Mining in 2025," clarifying matters related to the total control indicators for the first batch of tungsten ore mining this year to protect and reasonably develop advantageous mineral resources. In 2025, the total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore (with a tungsten trioxide content of 65%, the same hereinafter) mining is set at 58,000 mt, allocated to 11 provinces (regions) including Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong. Among them, the top three provinces in terms of the indicator are Jiangxi with 21,300 mt, Hunan with 15,530 mt, and Henan with 7,050 mt. Compared to the first batch of indicators in 2024, the total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore mining this year decreased by 4,000 mt. The Notice states that the total control indicator for tungsten ore mining will no longer distinguish between primary mining indicators and comprehensive utilisation indicators. For mines where the primary mineral species registered on the mining license is another mineral species and the tungsten ore is co-occurring or associated, and the identified tungsten resources are of large or medium scale, the total control indicator for mining will continue to be issued, with priority given in allocation. For mines with small-scale co-occurring or associated tungsten resources, no total control indicator for mining will be issued, and mining enterprises are required to report their tungsten ore production to the provincial natural resources authorities where they are located. 》Click to view details

Wolframite concentrate has risen by 16.87% overall since the beginning of the year.

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Pricing: According to SMM quotes, on May 29, the price of wolframite concentrate (≥55%) was 164,000-165,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 164,500 yuan/mt. Compared to the average price of 140,750 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024, this represents an increase of 23,750 yuan/mt, or 16.87%.

Spot Market: On May 29, the tungsten market generally showed an upward trend. Due to a supply deficit in upstream tungsten concentrate and miners' reluctance to sell, raw material quotes remained firm, leading to an increase in tungsten concentrate prices. Some APT suppliers have suspended quoting prices and adopted a wait-and-see attitude due to the rising prices of raw materials, with the market closely monitoring the price trends of raw materials. Meanwhile, as the prices of tungsten raw materials increase, the prices of downstream products in the tungsten industry chain also follow suit. However, considering that tungsten prices have already reached record highs, the downstream tungsten sector has limited acceptance of high-priced supplies, and most transactions in the market are dominated by small-scale just-in-time procurement.

Outlook

The current tight supply situation of upstream raw materials is unlikely to ease in the short term. Coupled with the optimism of most suppliers regarding the future tungsten prices, it is expected that the short-term supply tightness and positive market sentiment will continue to support the tungsten prices to hold up well. However, given that the current demand in the tungsten market has not significantly improved, the weak supply and demand situation will intensify the competition between upstream and downstream enterprises before a substantive recovery in demand. The market continues to pay close attention to the boosting effect of emerging industries such as PV, military, and aerospace on the demand for tungsten. In addition, after tungsten prices have repeatedly hit new highs, it is necessary to be vigilant about the impact of profit-taking by some traders on tungsten prices.

Recommended Reading:

》[Important] Ministry of Natural Resources: The total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore mining in 2025 is 58,000 mt